So being a fashion student and all, I learn a little every now and then about how the fashion industry works (good thing!). One subject that particularly fascinates me is
Trend Forecasting Theory. Who decides that Nautical is in? How is it possible that designers from completely different continents both choose to do an off-the-shoulder dress for this season? Why is grey the new black?
Trend Forecasting is in fact a very scientific process. Like the climatic seasons, fashion seasons too work in cycles.
Triggers in society occur, and based on past patterns, give the forecaster insight into what to expect in a few seasons to come, not only in terms of fashion trends, but lifestyle trends too.
For instance, everyone remembers the Arab Scarf craze that happened around 2005 internationally, and a bit later here in SA. To determine how this item became popular, lets go back, oh, 4 or so years prior... One event: 11 September 2001. The trigger. A sudden heightened awareness of the Arab community demand a physical representation. Cue, the Arab Scarf.
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| http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Male_with_Shemagh.jpg |
So this one trigger happened to be political, but there are many others;
Technology, pop-culture, economics, environment, sub-culture, ethics. Pretty much anything you would consider newsworthy could be a trigger. Now a trigger will not translate into a trend overnight. Generally it takes between 5-10 years for this trend to become evident. The most important thing is to keep in the know... to stay relevant and informed about what is happening around you.
So where do the trends start? Contrary to popular belief, Madame Anna Wintour at Vogue Headquarters does not dictate the fashion industry, although she plays a very strong role. This is determined by an interesting cycle called the Trickle Theory. A few hundred years ago, the upper class wished to distinguish themselves from the commoners, and fashion became a tool to communicate their status, wealth and hierarchy. However, when the middle and lower classes started to adopt these trends (when the trends had "trickled down") the upper class realised the need to distinguish themselves once again, and thus started the phenomenon of fashion change and trends.
HOWEVER, this is not the case today. You may wonder why there are so many street fashion blogs: Sartorialist, StreetPeeper, etc. This is why: because the tables of fashion have turned. The power no longer lies in the hands of the rich, but in the hands of you and me. How liberating! How empowering! We are no longer passive consumers. Our trust has been betrayed far too many times by those in power, or those above us. No, we are active consumers! We want to make our own decisions. We want to share our own opinion. We want to express our own identity. So simply accepting what others dictate to us simply won't do anymore. Believe it or not, we dictate the fashion industry. Street fashion trends express a point-of-view of the consumer, give us insight into the mood and opinions of the people on the streets. The Joe Blogs (how fitting?) of society. A few people feeling the same thing, for example, a military inspired jacket, points to a developing trend, a common thread in human thinking. This idea will "trickle up" to the innovators of fashion: bloggers, designers, photographers, stylists, etc. A designer may show a collection inspired by this new theme (consider Balmain 2009). From here the trend "trickles across" the various media platforms via the fashion innovators. This is possibly where Madame Wintour casts her authority. She is able to spot a trend, and translate and advertise it to regular consumers... the adopters, and so the trend "trickles down" again to the street. Once this late adopters and laggards start embracing the new trend, it is time for our street folk to reinvent themselves so as not to appear commercial, and so the "Trickle" Cycle continues.
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Street: 2006
www.sartorialist.com |
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Media: 2010
"Military Issue" photos by Mario Testino for the March 2010 issue of Vogue via www.millionlooks.com |
Let this be your inspiration. We South Africans have a great perspective; lets share that with the rest of the world. Let us think about what we wear, in terms of what it is communicating and what it reflects, but if all else fails, lets just have fun expressing ourselves and let everyone else rationalise it for us!
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one that is the most adaptable to change"
- Charles Darwin
